Base Rate Discussion
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Base Rate Discussion
by Bobby Francis Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:23 pm
What is the best way to come up with a base rate for the best picture forecast?
Bobby Francis- Posts : 13
Join date : 2016-02-10
Re: Base Rate Discussion
by Bobby Francis Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:46 pm
So there are some betting markets that allow people to bet on what will win the Oscar in a given category:
www hsx com/security/list.php?id=3
www paddypower com/bet/hollywood/oscars?ev_oc_grp_ids=559541
the trouble is turning them into actual probabilities. If we can do this for a number of markets and combine them together, we could have a pretty powerful base rate
NOTE: I can't post external links for 7 days, so change the spaces to periods
www hsx com/security/list.php?id=3
www paddypower com/bet/hollywood/oscars?ev_oc_grp_ids=559541
the trouble is turning them into actual probabilities. If we can do this for a number of markets and combine them together, we could have a pretty powerful base rate
NOTE: I can't post external links for 7 days, so change the spaces to periods
Bobby Francis- Posts : 13
Join date : 2016-02-10
Re: Base Rate Discussion
by Bobby Francis Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:48 pm
Whoops, paddypower's best picture market is actually here:
www paddypower com/bet/hollywood/oscars?ev_oc_grp_ids=10446
www paddypower com/bet/hollywood/oscars?ev_oc_grp_ids=10446
Bobby Francis- Posts : 13
Join date : 2016-02-10
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